Economics
Consider the setting in which a researcher is interested in the causal effect of a treatment $Z$ on a duration time $T$, which is subject to right censoring. We assume that $T=\varphi(X,Z,U)$, where $X$ is a vector of baseline covariates,…
Multilateral index numbers are often used to make claims about welfare, such as treating PPPs as cross-country costs of living or real incomes as indicators of living standards. However, such interpretations may not be consistent with the…
Significant treatment effects are often emphasized when interpreting and summarizing empirical findings in studies that estimate multiple, possibly many, treatment effects. Under this kind of selective reporting, conventional treatment…
A large empirical literature regresses outcomes on empirical Bayes shrinkage estimates of value-added, yet little is known about whether this approach leads to unbiased estimates and valid inference for the downstream regression…
This study quantifies how contract duration influences buyers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) when they hold real options that allow them to flexibly time consumption in response to changing market conditions. Using contract data from the US…
We forecast a single time series using a high-dimensional set of predictors. When these predictors share common underlying dynamics, an approximate latent factor model provides a powerful characterization of their co-movements Bai(2003).…
I propose a quantile-based nonadditive fixed effects panel model to study heterogeneous causal effects. Similar to standard fixed effects (FE) model, my model allows arbitrary dependence between regressors and unobserved heterogeneity, but…
Difference-in-differences (DID) is one of the most popular tools used to evaluate causal effects of policy interventions. This paper extends the DID methodology to accommodate interval outcomes, which are often encountered in empirical…
We consider an adaptive experiment for treatment choice and design a minimax and Bayes optimal adaptive experiment with respect to regret. Given binary treatments, the experimenter's goal is to choose the treatment with the highest expected…
We document a fundamental paradox in AI transparency: explanations improve decisions when algorithms are correct but systematically worsen them when algorithms err. In an experiment with 257 medical students making 3,855 diagnostic…
This paper proposes a method to automatically construct or estimate Neyman-orthogonal moments in general models defined by a finite number of conditional moment restrictions (CMRs), with possibly different conditioning variables and…
We study procurement design when the buyer is uncertain about both the value of the good and the seller's cost. The buyer has a conjectured model but does not fully trust it. She first identifies mechanisms that maximize her worst-case…
When customers must visit a seller to learn the valuation of its product, sellers potentially benefit from charging a lower price on the first visit and a higher price when a buyer returns. Armstrong and Zhou (2016) show that such price…
Counterfactual analysis is central to education market design and provides a foundation for credible policy recommendations. We develop a novel methodology for counterfactual analysis in Gale-Shapley deferred-acceptance (DA) assignment…
Since its inception, Bitcoin has been positioned as a revolutionary alternative to national currencies, attracting immense public and academic interest. This paper presents a critical evaluation of this claim, suggesting that Bitcoin faces…
We develop a generalized control function approach to production function estimation. Our approach accommodates settings in which productivity evolves jointly with other unobservable factors such as latent demand shocks and the…
While many national and international climate policies clearly outline decarbonization targets and the timelines for achieving them, there is a notable lack of effort to objectively monitor progress. A significant share of the transition…
We study the impact of the order flow auction (OFA) in the context of the proposer-builder separation (PBS) mechanism in blockchains through a game-theoretic perspective. The OFA is designed to improve user welfare by redistributing maximal…
Linear regressions with endogeneity are widely used to estimate causal effects. This paper studies a framework that involves two common practical issues: endogeneity of the regressors and heteroskedasticity that depends on endogenous…
To report spillover effects, a common practice is to regress outcomes on statistics summarizing neighbors' treatments. This paper studies nonparametric analogs of these estimands, which we refer to as exposure contrasts. We demonstrate that…