Economics
The theoretical landscape of transportation cost planning is shifting from deterministic linear models to dynamic, data-driven optimization. As supply chains face volatility, static 20th-century cost assumptions prove increasingly…
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) states that the revenue from interline tickets must be shared among the different airlines according to a weighted system. We analyze this problem following an axiomatic approach, and our…
Using an integrated framework rooted in the TOE model enhanced with AI, this study looks at ways to improve industrial performance and environmental sustainability in fragile and rapidly transforming contexts such as those found in Yemen…
We study Sybil manipulation in BRACE, a competitive equilibrium mechanism for combinatorial exchanges, by treating identity creation as a finite perturbation of the empirical distribution of reported types. Under standard regularity…
The advantages of adaptive experiments have led to their rapid adoption in economics, other fields, as well as among practitioners. However, adaptive experiments pose challenges for causal inference. This note suggests a BOLS (batched…
If agents engage in motivated reasoning, how does that affect the aggregation of information in society? We study the effects of motivated reasoning in two canonical settings - the Condorcet jury theorem (CJT), and the sequential social…
In a strategy-proof mechanism, the influence of an agent may be measured as the set of outcomes an agent can bring about by varying her (reported) type. More specifically, we refer to an agent's influence on her own relevant outcomes as her…
This paper studies regional exposure designs that use commodity prices as instruments to study local effects of aggregate shocks. Unlike standard shift share designs that leverage differential exposure to many shocks, the price exposure…
We study the long-standing problem of determining the number of principal components in econometric applications from a selective inference perspective. We consider i.i.d. observations from a $p$-dimensional random vector with $p<n$ and…
This paper develops a prior-free model of data-driven decision making in which the decision maker observes the entire distribution of signals generated by a known experiment under an unknown distribution of the state variable and evaluates…
Leveraging Tennessee's 2005 Medicaid contraction, I study the impact of losing public health insurance on body weight and relevant health behaviors. Using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from 1997 to 2010, I estimate…
This paper develops an algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs hundreds of millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vacancy data. Classifiers are then selected to avoid both false…
We investigate the management of information provision to maximize user engagement. A principal sequentially reveals signals to an agent who has a limited amount of information processing capacity and can choose to exit at any time. We…
\citet{farrell2021deep} establish non-asymptotic high-probability bounds for general deep feedforward neural network (with rectified linear unit activation function) estimators, with \citet[Theorem 1]{farrell2021deep} achieving a suboptimal…
Using Brazilian municipal audit reports, I construct an automated corruption index that combines a dictionary of audit irregularities with principal component analysis. The index validates strongly against independent human coders,…
There has been significant progress in Bayesian inference based on sparsity-inducing (e.g., spike-and-slab and horseshoe-type) priors for high-dimensional regression models. The resulting posteriors, however, in general do not possess…
Risk aversion and insurance are two prominent and interconnected concepts in economics and finance. To explore their fundamental connection, we introduce risk-insurance parity, which associates various classes of insurance contracts with…
This note studies optimal experimental design under partial compliance when experimenters can screen participants prior to randomization. Theoretical results show that retaining all compliers and screening out all non-compliers achieves…
How should a buyer design procurement mechanisms when suppliers' costs are unknown, and the buyer does not have a prior belief? We demonstrate that simple mechanisms - that share a constant fraction of the buyer utility with the seller -…
Case management by judges is increasingly determining the outcome of litigation, particularly in the multidistrict litigation (MDL) process. One concern is that the MDL process pressures defendants to settle, regardless of the merits, and…