Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments
Other Statistics
2025-09-11 v1
Abstract
An informal and elementary introduction to probability scoring and forecast verification and improvement, slightly extended from Significance 22:3(2025)16, which might be useful for less mathematical readers as a prologue to the classic review by Gneiting and Raftery [Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association 102 (2007): 359].
Cite
@article{arxiv.2509.08744,
title = {Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments},
author = {Niall MacKay},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.08744},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
13 pages, 2 figures