English

On a conjectured sharpness principle for probabilistic forecasting with calibration

Statistics Theory 2009-02-03 v1 Probability Statistics Theory

Abstract

This note proves a weak type of the sharpness principle as conjectured by Gneiting, Balabdaoui, and Raftery in 2007 in connection with probabilistic forecasting subject to calibration constraints. A strong version of such a principle still awaits a proper formulation.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.0902.0342,
  title  = {On a conjectured sharpness principle for probabilistic forecasting with calibration},
  author = {Soumik Pal},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0902.0342},
  year   = {2009}
}

Comments

6 pages; accepted for publication in the Biometrika

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