Treatment effect estimation by comparing observed and predicted outcomes: theory and practical illustration in radiotherapy
Methodology
2025-11-27 v1
Abstract
Prediction models developed before the introduction of a new treatment may be used to estimate treatment effects of newly introduced treatments. One approach, known as model-based clinical evaluation in radiotherapy, does this by comparing observed outcomes under a new treatment with predicted outcomes had these patients received the standard treatment. This article clarifies the relevant conditions needed for valid average treatment effect estimation using this approach, using the potential outcomes framework and a practical case study.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2511.21266,
title = {Treatment effect estimation by comparing observed and predicted outcomes: theory and practical illustration in radiotherapy},
author = {Lotta M. Meijerink and Artuur M. Leeuwenberg and Jungyeon Choi and Bas B. L. Penning de Vries and Johannes A. Langendijk and Judith G. M. van Loon and Remi A. Nout and Karel G. M. Moons and Ewoud Schuit},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.21266},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
13 pages, 1 figure