Hypothesizing an effect size by considering individual variation
Methodology
2026-04-10 v1
Abstract
When designing and evaluating an experiment or observational study, it is useful to have a realistic hypothesis regarding the average treatment effect. We present an approach to conceptualizing this average by first considering a distribution of effects. We demonstrate with examples in medicine, economics, and psychology.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2604.08421,
title = {Hypothesizing an effect size by considering individual variation},
author = {Andrew Gelman and Amy Krefman and Lauren Kennedy and Jessica Hullman},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.08421},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2302.12878