Transitions between Metastable States in a Simplified Model for the Thermohaline Circulation under Random Fluctuations
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
2019-04-29 v1
Abstract
In this work, we study the impact of non-Gaussian alpha-stable Levy motion on transitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a stochastic Stommel two-box model for thermohaline circulation (THC). By maximizing the probability density of the solution process associated with a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways and identify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numerical results indicate weakened THC may be induced by perturbation with very small noise intensity in a certain range of stability index. Moreover, larger noise intensity and larger stability index induce weakened THC within shorter bifurcation time.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1904.11582,
title = {Transitions between Metastable States in a Simplified Model for the Thermohaline Circulation under Random Fluctuations},
author = {Daniel Tesfay and Pingyuan Wei and Yayun Zheng and Jinqiao Duan and Jurgen Kurth},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1904.11582},
year = {2019}
}