Maximal Likely Phase Lines for a Reduced Ice Growth Model
Abstract
We study the impact of Brownian noise on transitions between metastable equilibrium states in a stochastic ice sheet model. Two methods to accomplish different objectives are employed. The maximal likely trajectory by maximizing the probability density function and numerically solving the Fokker-Planck equation shows how the system will evolve over time. We have especially studied the maximal likely trajectories starting near the ice-free metastable state, and examined whether they evolve to or near the ice-covered metastable state for certain parameters, in order to gain insights into how the ice sheet formed. Furthermore, for the transition from ice-covered metastable state to the ice-free metastable state, we study the most probable path for various noise parameters via the Onsager-Machlup least action principle. This enables us to predict and visualize the melting process of the ice sheet if such a rare event ever does take place.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1912.00471,
title = {Maximal Likely Phase Lines for a Reduced Ice Growth Model},
author = {Athanasios Tsiairis and Pingyuan Wei and Ying Chao and Jinqiao Duan},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1912.00471},
year = {2020}
}
Comments
15 pages, 13 figures