The spread of a rumor or infection in a moving population
Abstract
We consider the following interacting particle system: There is a ``gas'' of particles, each of which performs a continuous-time simple random walk on , with jump rate . These particles are called -particles and move independently of each other. They are regarded as individuals who are ignorant of a rumor or are healthy. We assume that we start the system with -particles at , and that the , are i.i.d., mean- Poisson random variables. In addition, there are -particles which perform continuous-time simple random walks with jump rate . We start with a finite number of -particles in the system at time 0. -particles are interpreted as individuals who have heard a certain rumor or who are infected. The -particles move independently of each other. The only interaction is that when a -particle and an -particle coincide, the latter instantaneously turns into a -particle. We investigate how fast the rumor, or infection, spreads. Specifically, if a -particle visits during and , then we investigate the asymptotic behavior of . Our principal result states that if (so that the - and -particles perform the same random walk), then there exist constants such that almost surely for all large , where . In a further paper we shall use the results presented here to prove a full ``shape theorem,'' saying that converges almost surely to a nonrandom set , with the origin as an interior point, so that the true growth rate for is linear in . If , then we can only prove the upper bound eventually.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.math/0312496,
title = {The spread of a rumor or infection in a moving population},
author = {Harry Kesten and Vladas Sidoravicius},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:math/0312496},
year = {2007}
}
Comments
Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009117905000000413 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)