English

The spread of a rumor or infection in a moving population

Probability 2007-05-23 v2 Populations and Evolution

Abstract

We consider the following interacting particle system: There is a ``gas'' of particles, each of which performs a continuous-time simple random walk on Zd\mathbb{Z}^d, with jump rate DAD_A. These particles are called AA-particles and move independently of each other. They are regarded as individuals who are ignorant of a rumor or are healthy. We assume that we start the system with NA(x,0)N_A(x,0-) AA-particles at xx, and that the NA(x,0),xZdN_A(x,0-),x\in\mathbb{Z}^d, are i.i.d., mean-μA\mu_A Poisson random variables. In addition, there are BB-particles which perform continuous-time simple random walks with jump rate DBD_B. We start with a finite number of BB-particles in the system at time 0. BB-particles are interpreted as individuals who have heard a certain rumor or who are infected. The BB-particles move independently of each other. The only interaction is that when a BB-particle and an AA-particle coincide, the latter instantaneously turns into a BB-particle. We investigate how fast the rumor, or infection, spreads. Specifically, if B~(t):={xZd:\widetilde{B}(t):=\{x\in\mathbb{Z}^d: a BB-particle visits xx during [0,t]}[0,t]\} and B(t)=B~(t)+[1/2,1/2]dB(t)=\widetilde{B}(t)+[-1/2,1/2]^d, then we investigate the asymptotic behavior of B(t)B(t). Our principal result states that if DA=DBD_A=D_B (so that the AA- and BB-particles perform the same random walk), then there exist constants 0<Ci<0<C_i<\infty such that almost surely C(C2t)B(t)C(C1t)\mathcal{C}(C_2t)\subset B(t)\subset \mathcal{C}(C_1t) for all large tt, where C(r)=[r,r]d\mathcal{C}(r)=[-r,r]^d. In a further paper we shall use the results presented here to prove a full ``shape theorem,'' saying that t1B(t)t^{-1}B(t) converges almost surely to a nonrandom set B0B_0, with the origin as an interior point, so that the true growth rate for B(t)B(t) is linear in tt. If DADBD_A\ne D_B, then we can only prove the upper bound B(t)C(C1t)B(t)\subset \mathcal{C}(C_1t) eventually.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.math/0312496,
  title  = {The spread of a rumor or infection in a moving population},
  author = {Harry Kesten and Vladas Sidoravicius},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:math/0312496},
  year   = {2007}
}

Comments

Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009117905000000413 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)