English

On an epidemic model on finite graphs

Probability 2025-07-08 v5

Abstract

We study a system of random walks, known as the frog model, starting from a profile of independent Poisson(λ\lambda) particles per site, with one additional active particle planted at some vertex o\mathbf{o} of a finite connected simple graph G=(V,E)G=(V,E). Initially, only the particles occupying o\mathbf{o} are active. Active particles perform tN{}t \in \mathbb{N} \cup \{\infty \} steps of the walk they picked before vanishing and activate all inactive particles they hit. This system is often taken as a model for the spread of an epidemic over a population. Let Rt\mathcal{R}_t be the set of vertices which are visited by the process, when active particles vanish after tt steps. We study the susceptibility of the process on the underlying graph, defined as the random quantity S(G):=inf{t:Rt=V}\mathcal{S}(G):=\inf \{t:\mathcal{R}_t=V \} (essentially, the shortest particles' lifetime required for the entire population to get infected). We consider the cases that the underlying graph is either a regular expander or a dd-dimensional torus of side length nn (for all d1d \ge 1) Td(n)\mathbb{T}_d(n) and determine the asymptotic behavior of S\mathcal{S} up to a constant factor. In fact, throughout we allow the particle density λ\lambda to depend on nn and for d2d \ge 2 we determine the asymptotic behavior of S(Td(n))\mathcal{S}(\mathbb{T}_d(n)) up to smaller order terms for a wide range of λ=λn\lambda=\lambda_n.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1610.04301,
  title  = {On an epidemic model on finite graphs},
  author = {Itai Benjamini and Luiz Renato Fontes and Jonathan Hermon and Fabio Prates Machado},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1610.04301},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

59 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-22T16:20:23.769Z