English

Nonlinear trend of COVID-19 infection time series

Physics and Society 2024-12-24 v1 Numerical Analysis Numerical Analysis Populations and Evolution

Abstract

We have developed a nonlinear method of time series analysis that allows us to obtain multiple nonlinear trends without harmonics from a given set of numerical data. We propose to apply the method to recognize the ongoing status of COVID-19 infection with an analytical equation for nonlinear trends. We found that there is only a single nonlinear trend, and this result justifies the use of a week-based infection growth rate. In addition, the fit with the obtained analytical equation for the nonlinear trend holds for a duration of more than three months for the Delta variant infection time series. The fitting also visualizes the transition to the Omicron variant.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2404.00866,
  title  = {Nonlinear trend of COVID-19 infection time series},
  author = {Fumihiko Ishiyama},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2404.00866},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

11 pages, 7 figures