English

Limit theorems for Markov walks conditioned to stay positive under a spectral gap assumption

Probability 2016-07-28 v2

Abstract

Consider a Markov chain (Xn)n0(X_n)_{n\geqslant 0} with values in the state space X\mathbb X. Let ff be a real function on X\mathbb X and set S0=0,S_0=0, Sn=f(X1)++f(Xn),S_n = f(X_1)+\cdots + f(X_n), n1n\geqslant 1. Let Px\mathbb P_x be the probability measure generated by the Markov chain starting at X0=xX_0=x. For a starting point yRy \in \mathbb R denote by τy\tau_y the first moment when the Markov walk (y+Sn)n1(y+S_n)_{n\geqslant 1} becomes non-positive. Under the condition that SnS_n has zero drift, we find the asymptotics of the probability Px(τy>n)\mathbb P_x ( \tau_y >n ) and of the conditional law Px(y+Snnτy>n)\mathbb P_x ( y+S_n\leqslant \cdot\sqrt{n} | \tau_y >n ) as n+.n\to +\infty.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1607.07757,
  title  = {Limit theorems for Markov walks conditioned to stay positive under a spectral gap assumption},
  author = {Ion Grama and Ronan Lauvergnat and Émile Le Page},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1607.07757},
  year   = {2016}
}

Comments

Figure 1 corrected