English

Heavy traffic and heavy tails for the maximum of a random walk

Probability 2018-06-29 v3

Abstract

Consider a family of random walks Sn(a)=X1(a)++Xn(a)S_n^{(a)}=X_1^{(a)}+\cdots+X_n^{(a)} with negative drift EX1(a)=a<0\mathbf E X_1^{(a)}=-a<0 and finite variance \mboxvar(X1(a))=σ2<\mbox{var}(X_1^{(a)})=\sigma^2<\infty.Let M(a)=maxn0Sn(a)M^{(a)}=\max_{n\ge 0} S_n^{(a)} be the maximums of the random walks. The exponential asymptotics P(aM(a)>x)e2x/σ2\mathbf P(aM^{(a)}>x)\sim e^{-2x/\sigma^2}, as a0a\to 0, were found by Kingman and are known as heavy traffic approximation in the queueing theory. For subexponential random variables the large deviation asymptotics for P(M(a)>x)1aFI(x)\mathbf P(M^{(a)}>x)\sim \frac{1}{a}\overline F^I(x) hold for fixed aa as xx\to\infty. In this paper we present asymptotics for P(M(a)>x)\mathbf P(M^{(a)}>x), which hold uniformly on the whole positive axis, as a0a\to 0. Thus, these uniform asymptotics include both the regime of normal and large deviations. We identify the regions where exponential or subexponential asymptotics hold. Our approach is based on construction of corresponding super/sub - martingales to obtain sharp upper and lower bounds.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1403.7325,
  title  = {Heavy traffic and heavy tails for the maximum of a random walk},
  author = {Denis Denisov and Johannes Kugler},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1403.7325},
  year   = {2018}
}

Comments

32 pages. This is a completely new version of the paper. All proofs and statements have been rewritten