Counting Connected Graphs Asymptotically

We find the asymptotic number of connected graphs with $k$ vertices and $k-1+l$ edges when $k,l$ approach infinity, reproving a result of Bender, Canfield and McKay. We use the {\em probabilistic method}, analyzing breadth-first search on the random graph $G(k,p)$ for an appropriate edge probability $p$. Central is analysis of a random walk with fixed beginning and end which is tilted to the left.