English

Analytic solution of the SEIR epidemic model via asymptotic approximant

Populations and Evolution 2020-07-01 v2 Physics and Society

Abstract

An analytic solution is obtained to the SEIR Epidemic Model. The solution is created by constructing a single second-order nonlinear differential equation in lnS\ln S and analytically continuing its divergent power series solution such that it matches the correct long-time exponential damping of the epidemic model. This is achieved through an asymptotic approximant (Barlow et. al, 2017, Q. Jl Mech. Appl. Math, 70 (1), 21-48) in the form of a modified symmetric Pad\'e approximant that incorporates this damping. The utility of the analytical form is demonstrated through its application to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2006.09818,
  title  = {Analytic solution of the SEIR epidemic model via asymptotic approximant},
  author = {Steven J. Weinstein and Morgan S. Holland and Kelly E. Rogers and Nathaniel S. Barlow},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.09818},
  year   = {2020}
}

Comments

original version had substantial text overlap with arXiv:2004.07833; this is now less so