English

Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model

Populations and Evolution 2021-01-05 v5 Physics and Society

Abstract

An accurate closed-form solution is obtained to the SIR Epidemic Model through the use of Asymptotic Approximants (Barlow et. al, 2017, Q. Jl Mech. Appl. Math, 70 (1), 21-48). The solution is created by analytically continuing the divergent power series solution such that it matches the long-time asymptotic behavior of the epidemic model. The utility of the analytical form is demonstrated through its application to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2004.07833,
  title  = {Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model},
  author = {Nathaniel S. Barlow and Steven J. Weinstein},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.07833},
  year   = {2021}
}

Comments

Updates: Fixed a typo in previous version's equation 6c. Included link to Python code