Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model
Populations and Evolution
2021-01-05 v5 Physics and Society
Abstract
An accurate closed-form solution is obtained to the SIR Epidemic Model through the use of Asymptotic Approximants (Barlow et. al, 2017, Q. Jl Mech. Appl. Math, 70 (1), 21-48). The solution is created by analytically continuing the divergent power series solution such that it matches the long-time asymptotic behavior of the epidemic model. The utility of the analytical form is demonstrated through its application to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2004.07833,
title = {Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model},
author = {Nathaniel S. Barlow and Steven J. Weinstein},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.07833},
year = {2021}
}
Comments
Updates: Fixed a typo in previous version's equation 6c. Included link to Python code