English

Weak convergence of predictive distributions

Probability 2025-07-28 v1 Statistics Theory Methodology Statistics Theory

Abstract

Let (Xn)(X_n) be a sequence of random variables with values in a standard Borel space SS. We investigate the condition \begin{gather}\label{x56w1q} E\bigl\{f(X_{n+1})\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n\bigr\}\,\quad\text{converges in probability,}\tag{*} \\\text{as }n\rightarrow\infty,\text{ for each bounded Borel function }f:S\rightarrow\mathbb{R}.\notag \end{gather} Some consequences of \eqref{x56w1q} are highlighted and various sufficient conditions for it are obtained. In particular, \eqref{x56w1q} is characterized in terms of stable convergence. Since \eqref{x56w1q} holds whenever (Xn)(X_n) is conditionally identically distributed, three weak versions of the latter condition are investigated as well. For each of such versions, our main goal is proving (or disproving) that \eqref{x56w1q} holds. Several counterexamples are given.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2507.19169,
  title  = {Weak convergence of predictive distributions},
  author = {Fabrizio Leisen and Luca Pratelli and Pietro Rigo},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.19169},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T04:18:40.581Z