Weak convergence of predictive distributions
Abstract
Let be a sequence of random variables with values in a standard Borel space . We investigate the condition \begin{gather}\label{x56w1q} E\bigl\{f(X_{n+1})\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n\bigr\}\,\quad\text{converges in probability,}\tag{*} \\\text{as }n\rightarrow\infty,\text{ for each bounded Borel function }f:S\rightarrow\mathbb{R}.\notag \end{gather} Some consequences of \eqref{x56w1q} are highlighted and various sufficient conditions for it are obtained. In particular, \eqref{x56w1q} is characterized in terms of stable convergence. Since \eqref{x56w1q} holds whenever is conditionally identically distributed, three weak versions of the latter condition are investigated as well. For each of such versions, our main goal is proving (or disproving) that \eqref{x56w1q} holds. Several counterexamples are given.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2507.19169,
title = {Weak convergence of predictive distributions},
author = {Fabrizio Leisen and Luca Pratelli and Pietro Rigo},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.19169},
year = {2025}
}