Tree metrics and log-concavity for matroids

We show that a set function $\nu$ satisfies the gross substitutes property if and only if its homogeneous generating polynomial $Z_{q,\nu}$ is a Lorentzian polynomial for all positive $q \le 1$, answering a question of Eur-Huh. We achieve this by giving a rank 1 upper bound for the distance matrix of an ultrametric tree, refining a classical result of Graham-Pollak. This characterization enables us to resolve two open problems that strengthen Mason's log-concavity conjectures for the number of independent sets of a matroid: one posed by Giansiracusa-Rinc\'on-Schleis-Ulirsch for valuated matroids, and two posed by Dowling in 1980 and Zhao in 1985 for ordinary matroids.