English

The Mixed Birth-death/death-Birth Moran Process

Probability 2026-01-14 v3 Data Structures and Algorithms

Abstract

We study evolutionary dynamics on graphs in which each step consists of one birth and one death, also known as the Moran processes. There are two types of individuals: residents with fitness 11 and mutants with fitness rr. Two standard update rules are used in the literature. In Birth-death (Bd), a vertex is chosen to reproduce proportional to fitness, and one of its neighbors is selected uniformly at random to be replaced by the offspring. In death-Birth (dB), a vertex is chosen uniformly to die, and then one of its neighbors is chosen, proportional to fitness, to place an offspring into the vacancy. We formalize and study a unified model, the λ\lambda-mixed Moran process, in which each step is independently a Bd step with probability λ[0,1]\lambda \in [0,1] and a dB step otherwise. We analyze this mixed process for undirected, connected graphs. As an interesting special case, we show at λ=1/2\lambda=1/2, for any graph that the fixation probability when r=1r=1 with a single mutant initially on the graph is exactly 1/n1/n, and also at λ=1/2\lambda=1/2 that the absorption time for any rr is Or(n4)O_r(n^4). We also show results for graphs that are "almost regular," in a manner defined in the paper. We use this to show that for suitable random graphs from GG(n,p)G \sim G(n,p) and fixed r>1r>1, with high probability over the choice of graph, the absorption time is Or(n4)O_r(n^4), the fixation probability is Ωr(n2)\Omega_r(n^{-2}), and we can approximate the fixation probability in polynomial time. Another special case is when the graph has only two distinct degree values {d1,d2}\{d_1, d_2\} with d1d2d_1 \leq d_2. For those graphs, we give exact formulas for fixation probabilities when r=1r = 1 and any λ\lambda, and establish an absorption time of Or(n4α4)O_r(n^4 \alpha^4) for all λ\lambda, where α=d2/d1\alpha = d_2 / d_1. We also provide explicit formulas for the star and cycle under any rr or λ\lambda.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2511.18252,
  title  = {The Mixed Birth-death/death-Birth Moran Process},
  author = {David A. Brewster and Yichen Huang and Michael Mitzenmacher and Martin A. Nowak},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.18252},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

Extended Abstract at ITCS 2026

R2 v1 2026-07-01T07:50:37.658Z