English

The maximum proportion of spreaders in stochastic rumor models

Physics and Society 2025-07-11 v1 Probability

Abstract

We examine a general stochastic rumor model characterized by specific parameters that govern the interaction rates among individuals. Our model includes the (α,p)(\alpha, p)-probability variants of the well-known Daley--Kendall and Maki--Thompson models. In these variants, a spreader involved in an interaction attempts to transmit the rumor with probability pp; if successful, any spreader encountering an individual already informed of the rumor has probability α\alpha of becoming a stifler. We prove that the maximum proportion of spreaders throughout the process converges almost surely, as the population size approaches~\infty. For both the classical Daley--Kendall and Maki--Thompson models, the asymptotic proportion of the rumor peak is 1log20.30691 - \log 2 \approx 0.3069.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2507.07914,
  title  = {The maximum proportion of spreaders in stochastic rumor models},
  author = {Elcio Lebensztayn and Pablo M. Rodriguez},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.07914},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T03:55:06.689Z