English

Relation between Hitting Times and Probabilities for Imprecise Markov Chains

Probability 2026-03-18 v1

Abstract

In the present paper, we investigate the relationship between hitting times and hitting probabilities in discrete-time imprecise Markov chains (IMCs). We define lower and upper hitting times and probabilities for IMCs whose set of transition matrices \T\T is compact, convex, and has separately specified rows. Building on reachability-based partitions of the state space, we prove two key implications: (i) finiteness of the upper expected hitting time entails the lower hitting probability equals one, and (ii) finiteness of the lower expected hitting time entails the upper hitting probability equals one. We further show an equivalence: the upper expected hitting time is finite if and only if the lower hitting probability is one. Finally, by presenting a counterexample, we show that the converse of the second implication can fail.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2603.16675,
  title  = {Relation between Hitting Times and Probabilities for Imprecise Markov Chains},
  author = {Marco Sangalli and Erik Quaeghebeur and Thomas Krak},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.16675},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

Under submission for International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS)

R2 v1 2026-07-01T11:24:26.438Z