Optimal empirical Bayes estimation for the Poisson model via minimum-distance methods
Abstract
The Robbins estimator is the most iconic and widely used procedure in the empirical Bayes literature for the Poisson model. On one hand, this method has been recently shown to be minimax optimal in terms of the regret (excess risk over the Bayesian oracle that knows the true prior) for various nonparametric classes of priors. On the other hand, it has been long recognized in practice that the Robbins estimator lacks the desired smoothness and monotonicity of Bayes estimators and can be easily derailed by those data points that were rarely observed before. Based on the minimum-distance distance method, we propose a suite of empirical Bayes estimators, including the classical nonparametric maximum likelihood, that outperform the Robbins method in a variety of synthetic and real data sets and retain its optimality in terms of minimax regret.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2209.01328,
title = {Optimal empirical Bayes estimation for the Poisson model via minimum-distance methods},
author = {Soham Jana and Yury Polyanskiy and Yihong Wu},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2209.01328},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
47 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables. Accepted for publication at Information and Inference - A Journal of the IMA