English

Multinomial logit processes and preference discovery: inside and outside the black box

Theoretical Economics 2021-01-28 v3 Neurons and Cognition

Abstract

We provide two characterizations, one axiomatic and the other neuro-computational, of the dependence of choice probabilities on deadlines, within the widely used softmax representation pt(a,A)=eu(a)λ(t)+α(a)bAeu(b)λ(t)+α(b) p_{t}\left( a,A\right) =\dfrac{e^{\frac{u\left( a\right) }{\lambda \left( t\right) }+\alpha \left( a\right) }}{\sum_{b\in A}e^{\frac{u\left( b\right) }{\lambda \left( t\right) }+\alpha \left( b\right) }}% where pt(a,A)p_{t}\left( a,A\right) is the probability that alternative aa is selected from the set AA of feasible alternatives if tt is the time available to decide, λ\lambda is a time dependent noise parameter measuring the unit cost of information, uu is a time independent utility function, and α\alpha is an alternative-specific bias that determines the initial choice probabilities reflecting prior information and memory anchoring. Our axiomatic analysis provides a behavioral foundation of softmax (also known as Multinomial Logit Model when α\alpha is constant). Our neuro-computational derivation provides a biologically inspired algorithm that may explain the emergence of softmax in choice behavior. Jointly, the two approaches provide a thorough understanding of soft-maximization in terms of internal causes (neurophysiological mechanisms) and external effects (testable implications).

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2004.13376,
  title  = {Multinomial logit processes and preference discovery: inside and outside the black box},
  author = {Simone Cerreia-Vioglio and Fabio Maccheroni and Massimo Marinacci and Aldo Rustichini},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.13376},
  year   = {2021}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-23T15:08:48.317Z