The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) depicts the spectral distribution of solar energy flux reaching the top of the Earth's atmosphere. Daily SSI measurements constitute a matrix with spectrally (rows) and temporally (columns) resolved solar energy flux measurements. The most recent SSI measurements have been made by NASA's Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor-1 (TSIS-1) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) since March 2018. This data has considerable missing data due to both random factors and instrument downtime, a periodic trend related to the Sun's cyclical magnetic activity, and varying degrees of correlation among the spectra, some approaching unity. We propose a low-rank matrix factorization method for SSI reconstruction that incorporates autoregressive temporal regularization, periodic spline detrending, and cross-spectral covariance information. The method is implemented as a two-stage procedure designed to address scattered missingness and extended downtime missingness, respectively, and is fitted using efficient alternating optimization algorithms. We further accompany the reconstructed SSI values with a distribution-free interval estimation procedure based on conformal prediction. Through synthetic experiments and real-data analyses, we compare this method with Gaussian process regression, linear time series smoothing, and existing matrix-completion approaches in terms of imputation accuracy, interval coverage, interval length, and computational efficiency. The results show that exploiting the periodic, temporal, and cross-spectral structure of SSI substantially improves reconstruction performance and yields calibrated uncertainty intervals, producing a reconstructed SSI data product suitable for downstream climate science studies.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2508.04074,
title = {Matrix Factorization-Based Solar Spectral Irradiance Missing Data Imputation with Uncertainty Quantification},
author = {Yuxuan Ke and Xianglei Huang and Odele Coddington and Yang Chen},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.04074},
year = {2026}
}