Local proper scoring rules of order two
Abstract
Scoring rules assess the quality of probabilistic forecasts, by assigning a numerical score based on the predictive distribution and on the event or value that materializes. A scoring rule is proper if it encourages truthful reporting. It is local of order if the score depends on the predictive density only through its value and the values of its derivatives of order up to at the realizing event. Complementing fundamental recent work by Parry, Dawid and Lauritzen, we characterize the local proper scoring rules of order 2 relative to a broad class of Lebesgue densities on the real line, using a different approach. In a data example, we use local and nonlocal proper scoring rules to assess statistically postprocessed ensemble weather forecasts.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1102.5031,
title = {Local proper scoring rules of order two},
author = {Werner Ehm and Tilmann Gneiting},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1102.5031},
year = {2012}
}
Comments
Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS973 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)