English

High-Precision Framework for Expected Hitting Times Analysis in the Dice-Sum Process

Probability 2026-04-28 v1 Numerical Analysis Combinatorics Numerical Analysis

Abstract

We study the expected number of rolls required for the cumulative sum of a fair six-sided die to first enter a prescribed target set HZ0H\subset\mathbb{Z}_{\ge0}. A one-variable dynamic-programming formulation is introduced that removes dependence on the roll count. Within this framework, the infinite process is truncated at a large cutoff NN and corrected by an analytically derived overshoot term that accounts for the rare event of exceeding NN before entering HH. Explicit bounds on this residual yield a strict two-sided estimate of the truncation error. The method is numerically efficient, requiring constant memory and linear time in the cutoff. For the perfect-square target set H={n2:nN}H=\{n^2:n\in\mathbb{N}\}, all quantities are evaluated explicitly, yielding E[T]=7.07976423755110510389555305690818489468, \mathbb{E}[T]=7.07976423755110510389555305690818489468\ldots, provably correct to 1,017 decimal places. This constitutes the most precise result known to date and establishes a general framework for high-accuracy computation of discrete hitting times.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2604.23133,
  title  = {High-Precision Framework for Expected Hitting Times Analysis in the Dice-Sum Process},
  author = {Tipaluck Krityakierne and Thotsaporn Aek Thanatipanonda},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.23133},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

16 pages, 1 figure

R2 v1 2026-07-01T12:34:48.444Z