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Expected Number of Dice Rolls Until an Increasing Run of Three

Combinatorics 2023-10-19 v2 Probability

Abstract

A closed form is found for the expected number of rolls of a fair n-sided die until three consecutive increasing values are seen. The answer is rational, and the greatest common divisor of the numerator and denominator is given in terms of n. As n goes to infinity, the probability generating function is found for the limiting case, which is also the exponential generating function for permutations ending in a double rise and without other double rises. Thus exact values are found for the limiting expectation and variance, which are approximately 7.92437 and 27.98133 respectively.

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Cite

@article{arxiv.2308.14635,
  title  = {Expected Number of Dice Rolls Until an Increasing Run of Three},
  author = {Daniel Chen},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2308.14635},
  year   = {2023}
}

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18 pages