English

Contact process with viral load

Probability 2026-02-20 v3

Abstract

In this article, we present two novel variants of the contact process. In the first variant individuals carry a viral load. An individual with viral load zero is classified as healthy and otherwise infected. If an individual becomes infected it begins with a viral load of one, which then evolves according to a Birth-Death process. In this model, viral load indicates severity of the infection such that individuals with a higher load can be more infectious. Moreover, the recovery times of individual is not necessarily exponentially distributed and can even be chosen to follow a power-law distribution. In the second variant individuals are permanently infected albeit in two states: actively infected or dormant. The dynamics of these individual states are again governed by a Birth-Death process. Dormant infections do not interact with neighbouring individuals but may reactivate spontaneously. Active infections reactivate dormant neighbours at a constant rate and may become dormant themselves. We present for both variants a Poisson construction. For the first model, we study the phase transition of survival and discuss existence of a non-trivial upper invariant law. Additionally, we derive a duality relationship between the two variant, which we use to uncover a phase transition regarding invariant distributions in the second variant.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2507.04768,
  title  = {Contact process with viral load},
  author = {Marco Seiler},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.04768},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

33 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in SPA, final version, changes: correction of some typos

R2 v1 2026-07-01T03:49:03.494Z