English

Confidence intervals for average success probabilities

Statistics Theory 2014-12-09 v3 Statistics Theory

Abstract

We provide Buehler-optimal one-sided and some valid two-sided confidence intervals for the average success probability of a possibly inhomogeneous fixed length Bernoulli chain, based on the number of observed successes. Contrary to some claims in the literature, the one-sided Clopper-Pearson intervals for the homogeneous case are not completely robust here, not even if applied to hypergeometric estimation problems.

Cite

@article{arxiv.1403.0229,
  title  = {Confidence intervals for average success probabilities},
  author = {Lutz Mattner and Christoph Tasto},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1403.0229},
  year   = {2014}
}

Comments

Revised version for: Probability and Mathematical Statistics. Two remarks added

R2 v1 2026-06-22T03:18:37.289Z