English

Closed-form survival probabilities for biased random walks at arbitrary step number

Statistical Mechanics 2025-06-02 v1 Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Abstract

We present a closed-form expression for the survival probability of a biased random walker to first reach a target site on a 1D lattice. The expression holds for any step number NN and is computationally faster than non-closed-form results in the literature. Because our result is exact even in the intermediate step number range, it serves as a tool to study convergence to the large NN limit. We also obtain a closed-form expression for the probability of last passage. In contrast to predictions of the large NN approximation, the new expression reveals a critical value of the bias beyond which the tail of the last-passage probability decays monotonically.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2505.24814,
  title  = {Closed-form survival probabilities for biased random walks at arbitrary step number},
  author = {Debendro Mookerjee and Sarah Kostinski},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.24814},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T02:51:10.734Z