Blackwell's Approachability for Sequential Conformal Inference
Machine Learning
2025-10-20 v1 Machine Learning
Abstract
We study conformal inference in non-exchangeable environments through the lens of Blackwell's theory of approachability. We first recast adaptive conformal inference (ACI, Gibbs and Cand\`es, 2021) as a repeated two-player vector-valued finite game and characterize attainable coverage--efficiency tradeoffs. We then construct coverage and efficiency objectives under potential restrictions on the adversary's play, and design a calibration-based approachability strategy to achieve these goals. The resulting algorithm enjoys strong theoretical guarantees and provides practical insights, though its computational burden may limit deployment in practice.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2510.15824,
title = {Blackwell's Approachability for Sequential Conformal Inference},
author = {Guillaume Principato and Gilles Stoltz},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.15824},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
25 pages, 0 figures