English

Bernstein-von Mises theorems for time evolution equations

Statistics Theory 2026-04-20 v3 Numerical Analysis Analysis of PDEs Numerical Analysis Probability Statistics Theory

Abstract

We consider a class of infinite-dimensional dynamical systems driven by non-linear parabolic partial differential equations with initial condition θ\theta modelled by a Gaussian process `prior' probability measure. Given discrete samples of the state of the system evolving in space-time, one obtains updated `posterior' measures on a function space containing all possible trajectories. We give a general set of conditions under which these non-Gaussian posterior distributions are approximated, in Wasserstein distance for the supremum-norm metric, by the law of a Gaussian random function. We demonstrate the applicability of our results to periodic non-linear reaction diffusion equations \begin{align*} \frac{\partial}{\partial t} u - \Delta u &= f(u) \\ u(0) &= \theta \end{align*} where ff is any smooth and compactly supported reaction function. In this case the limiting Gaussian measure can be characterised as the solution of a time-dependent Schr\"odinger equation with `rough' Gaussian initial conditions whose covariance operator we describe.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2407.14781,
  title  = {Bernstein-von Mises theorems for time evolution equations},
  author = {Richard Nickl},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.14781},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

54 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-28T17:48:09.032Z