Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment
Abstract
We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the Financial Bubble Experiment, adapting its principles of digital authentication, timestamped archiving, and delayed disclosure to the field of volcanology. The EFE implements a reproducible protocol in which each forecast is securely timestamped and cryptographically hashed (SHA-256) before being made public. The corresponding forecast documents, containing detailed diagnostics and probabilistic analyses, will be released after the next eruption or, if the forecasts are proven incorrect, at a later date. This procedure ensures full transparency while preventing premature interpretation or controversy surrounding public predictions. Forecasts will be issued monthly, or more frequently if required, using real-time monitoring data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative's Regional Cabled Array at Axial Seamount. By committing to publish all forecasts, successful or not, the EFE establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting. The ultimate goal is to transform eruption prediction into a cumulative and testable science founded on open verification, reproducibility, and physical understanding.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2511.06128,
title = {Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment},
author = {Qinghua Lei and Didier Sornette and William W. Chadwick and Scott L. Nooner and Maochuan Zhang and William S. D. Wilcock},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.06128},
year = {2026}
}