Related papers: Complementarity principle on human longevity
The mortality rate of many complex multicellular organisms increase with age, which suggests that net aging damage is accumulative, despite remodeling processes. But how exactly do little mishaps in the cellular level accumulate and spread…
The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…
Suppose, contrary to fact, in 1950, we had put the cohort of 18 year old non-smoking American men on a stringent mandatory diet that guaranteed that no one would ever weigh more than their baseline weight established at age 18. How would…
Longitudinal biomarker data and health outcomes are routinely collected in many studies to assess how biomarker trajectories predict health outcomes. Existing methods primarily focus on mean biomarker profiles, treating variability as a…
We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…
In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…
Lifespan distributions of populations of quite diverse species such as humans and yeast seem to surprisingly well follow the same empirical Gompertz-Makeham law, which basically predicts an exponential increase of mortality rate with age.…
We twice modify the Penna model for biological ageing. First we introduce back (good) mutations and a memory for them into the model. It allows us to observe an improvement of the species fitness over long time scales as well as punctuated…
Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk$^+$ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this…
In life insurance, life tables are used to estimate the survival distribution of individuals from a given population. However, these tables only provide survival probabilities at integer ages but no information about the distribution of…
Although maturation delays are frequently included in population models, researchers rarely account for mortality between birth and maturity. Previous discrete population models have included mortality of immature individuals during the…
In this article, we use the illness-death model to present a mathematical framework for studying the compression of morbidity (COM) hypothesis. It turns out that questions about COM are completely determined by the transition rates in the…
We show how concepts from statistical physics, such as order parameter, thermodynamic limit, and quantum phase transition, translate into biological concepts in mutation-selection models for sequence evolution and can be used there. The…
The concept of random deaths in a computational model for population dynamics is critically examined. We claim that it is just an artifact, albeit useful, of computational models to limit the size of the populations and has no biological…
Joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data has become increasingly important in medical research, particularly for understanding disease progression in chronic conditions where both repeated biomarker measurements and time-to-event…
There has been a recent surge of interest in what causes aging. This has been matched by unprecedented research investment in the field from tech companies. But, despite considerable effort from a broad range of researchers, we do not have…
Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…
Extended Everett's Concept (EEC) recently developed by the author to explain the phenomenon of consciousness is considered. A mathematical model is proposed for the principal feature of consciousness assumed in EEC, namely its ability (in…
We present the model theoretic concepts that allow mathematics to be developed with the notion of the potential infinite instead of the actual infinite. The potential infinite is understood as a dynamic notion, being an indefinitely…
New models for evolutionary processes of mutation accumulation allow hypotheses about the age-specificity of mutational effects to be translated into predictions of heterogeneous population hazard functions. We apply these models to…