Related papers: A Simple Cellular Automaton Model for Influenza A …
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes,…
We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…
The cellular automaton (CA) pulsing model (arXiv:1806.06416) described the surprising phenomenon of spontaneous, sustained and robust rhythmic oscillations, pulsing dynamics, when random wiring is applied to a 2D `glider' rule running in a…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Cellular automaton (CA) approach is an important theoretical framework for studying complex system behavior and has been widely applied in various research field. CA traffic flow models have the advantage of flexible evolution rules and…
Diffusion plays an important role in a wide variety of phenomena, from bacterial quorum sensing to the dynamics of traffic flow. While it generally tends to level out gradients and inhomogeneities, diffusion has nonetheless been shown to…
The Influenza type A virus can be considered as one of the most severe viruses that can infect multiple species with often fatal consequences to the hosts. The Haemagglutinin (HA) gene of the virus has the potential to be a target for…
To study the impact of climate variables on morbidity of some diseases in Mexico, we propose a spatio-temporal varying coefficients regression model. For that we introduce a new spatio-temporal dependent process prior, in a Bayesian…
Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…
This paper analyzes a simplified model of viral infection and evolution using the 'grand canonical ensemble' and formalisms from statistical mechanics and thermodynamics to enumerate all possible viruses and to derive thermodynamic…
The impact of climate conditions on influenza epidemiology has mostly been studied by addressing a singular aspect of transmission and a climate variable correlating to it. As climate change unfolds at an unprecedented rate, we urgently…
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has changed our lives and still poses a challenge to science. Numerous studies have contributed to a better understanding of the pandemic. In particular, inhalation of aerosolised pathogens has…
We argue that immune system is an adaptive complex system. It is shown that it has emergent properties. Its network structure is of the small world network type. The network is of the threshold type, which helps in avoiding autoimmunity. It…
The dynamics of infection spread in populations has received popular attention since the outbreak of Covid-19 and many statistical models have been developed. One of the interesting areas of research is short-time dynamics in confined,…
This study focuses on the modeling, mathematical analysis, developing theories, and numerical simulation of Influenza virus transmission. We have proved the existence, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness of the solutions. Also,…
Short-time human travel behaviour can be described by a power law with respect to distance. We incorporate this information in space-time models for infectious disease surveillance data to better capture the dynamics of disease spread. Two…
Cellular automata (CA) are discrete-time dynamical systems with local update rules on a lattice. Despite their elementary definition, CA support a wide spectrum of macroscopic phenomena central to statistical physics: equilibrium and…
Partial differential equation (PDE) models for infectious diseases, while less common than their ordinary differential equation (ODE) counterparts, have found successful applications for many years. Such models are typically of…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…