Related papers: Rigorous estimates of the tails of the probability…
The paper presents an efficient method for simulating the tails of a target variable Z=h(X) which depends on a set of basic variables X=(X_1, ..., X_n). To this aim, variables X_i, i=1, ..., n are sequentially simulated in such a manner…
The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…
Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…
Let $X_{1},..,X_{n}$ denote an i.i.d. sample with light tail distribution and $S_{1}^{n}$ denote the sum of its terms; let $a_{n}$ be a real sequence\ going to infinity with $n.$\ In a previous paper (\cite{BoniaCao}) it is proved that as…
For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…
We investigate asymptotics of the tail distribution of sojourn time $$ \int_0^T \mathbb{I}(X(t)> u)dt, $$ as $u\to\infty$, where $X$ is a centered stationary Gaussian process and $T$ is an independent of $X$ nonnegative random variable. The…
We consider two different portfolios of proportional reinsurance of the same pool of risks. This contribution is concerned with Gaussian-like risks, which means that for large values the survival function of such risks is, up to a…
In this paper, we derive tail approximations of integrals of exponential functions of Gaussian random fields with varying mean functions and approximations of the associated point processes. This study is motivated naturally by multiple…
We extend a result of Goldreich and Ron about estimating the collision probability of a hash function. Their estimate has a polynomial tail. We prove that when the load factor is greater than a certain constant, the estimator has a gaussian…
The presence of non-Gaussian tails is a prevalent characteristic in many financial modeling scenarios, necessitating the use of complex non-Gaussian distributions such as the generalized beta of the second kind (GB2) and the skewed…
We consider a system of $N$ particles on the real line that evolves through iteration of the following steps: 1) every particle splits into two, 2) each particle jumps according to a prescribed displacement distribution supported on the…
We obtain an asymptotic expansion for the tails of the random variable $\tcal=\arg\max_{u\in\mathbb{R}}(\mathcal{A}_2(u)-u^2)$ where $\mathcal{A}_2$ is the Airy$_2$ process. Using the formula of Schehr \cite{Sch} that connects the density…
The task of estimation of the tails of probability distributions having small samples seems to be still opened and almost unsolvable. The paper tries to make a step in filling this gap. In 2017 Jordanova et al. introduce six new…
Extreme events have an important role which is sometime catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena including climate, earthquakes and turbulence, as well as in man-made environments like financial markets. Statistical analysis and…
We consider linear statistics of the scaled zeros of Dirichlet $L$--functions, and show that the first few moments converge to the Gaussian moments. The number of Gaussian moments depends on the particular statistic considered. The same…
Many experiments utilize the precession of trapped particles in magnetic fields to perform high precision measurements. It had been presumed that after free precession, initially polarized particles will form a Gaussian phase distribution…
This paper deals with solutions of the nonlinear Boltzmann equation for spatially uniform freely cooling inelastic Maxwell models for large times and for large velocities, and the nonuniform convergence to these limits. We demonstrate how…
We consider the tail behavior of random variables $R$ which are solutions of the distributional equation $R\stackrel{d}{=}Q+MR$, where $(Q,M)$ is independent of $R$ and $|M|\le 1$. Goldie and Gr\"{u}bel showed that the tails of $R$ are no…
We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…
We obtain first decay rates of probabilities of tails of multivariate polynomials built on independent random variables with heavy tails. Then we derive stable limit theorems for nonconventional sums of the form $\sum_{Nt\geq n\geq…