Related papers: On the El-Nino Teleconnection to Spring Precipitat…
We study the relationship between the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon in ensemble simulations from state-of-the-art climate models, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community…
The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial ocean/atmosphere Pacific. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling…
Anomalies during an El Nino are dominated by a single, irregularly oscillating, mode. Equatorial dynamics has been linked to delayed-oscillator models of this mode. Usually, the El Nino mode is regarded as an unstable mode of the coupled…
The identification of precursors of climatic phenomena has enormous practical importance. Recent work constructs a climate network based on surface air temperature data to analyze the El Ni\~no phenomena. We utilize microtransitions which…
Current models for spatial extremes are concerned with the joint upper (or lower) tail of the distribution at two or more locations. Such models cannot account for teleconnection patterns of two-meter surface air temperature ($T_{2m}$) in…
Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method…
Recent work has provided ample evidence that global climate dynamics at time-scales between multiple weeks and several years can be severely affected by the episodic occurrence of both, internal (climatic) and external (non-climatic)…
We present a new statistical method to optimally link local weather extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures. The method is illustrated using July-August daily mean temperature at 2m height (T2m) time-series over the…
Rainy years and dry years in SE Australia are known to be correlated with sea surface temperatures in the specific areas of the Indian Ocean. While over the past 100 years the correlation had been both positive and negative, it…
Extreme weather events, rare yet profoundly impactful, are often accompanied by severe conditions. Increasing global temperatures are poised to exacerbate these events, resulting in greater human casualties, economic losses, and ecological…
Most of the existing prediction methods gave a false alarm regarding the El Ni\~no event in 2014. A crucial aspect is currently limiting the success of such predictions, i.e. the stability of the slowly varying Pacific climate. This…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to describe ENSO…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently we have developed a network approach, which allows…
This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed…
The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…
This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Ni\~no events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic…
Satellite and ground-based observations are used to explore the composite oceanic - atmospheric link known as the El Ni\~no/La Ni\~na Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is closely associated with extreme weather events (e.g. heat…
We study the forced response of the teleconnection between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global precipitation in general and the Indian summer monsoon (IM) in particular in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. The forced…
Northern Chile is one of the most arid regions in the world, with precipitation mainly occurring during austral summer, between December and April 1966-2015. The aim of this study is to classify the main weather regimes derived from sea…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of year-to-year variations of the global climate and can lead to extreme weather conditions and disasters in various regions around the world. Here, we review two different…