Related papers: On Observability of Signal over Background
We propose a method to estimate the probability of new physics discovery in future high energy physics experiments. Physics simulation gives both the average numbers $<N_b>$ of background and $<N_s>$ of signal events. We find that the…
Bayesian and frequentist methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimality properties. In practice, there are situations in which one of the methods is more preferred by some criteria. We consider the case of inference about a…
We use a direct observational approach to investigate the possibility of testing the Copernican principle with data from upcoming radio surveys. In particular we illustrate the importance of measuring derivatives transverse to the past…
We study the frequentist properties of confidence intervals for the On-Off problem. The methods include all those in common use today. We derive explicit formulas for the limits and calculate the true coverage and the expected lengths of…
Determining if two histograms are consistent, whether they have been drawn from the same underlying distribution or not, is a common problem in physics. Existing approaches are not only limited in power but also inapplicable to histograms…
A critical review of frequency-shift phenomena a la Doppler effect is presented. The importance of Fermi's theory of 1932 is pointed out, and it is argued that there exists a gap in our understanding of this phenomena at a fundamental…
A novel method for extracting physical parameters from experimental and simulation data is presented. The method is based on statistical concepts and it relies on Monte Carlo simulation techniques. It identifies and determines with maximal…
We analyze the notion that physical theories are quantitative and testable by observations in experiments. This leads us to propose a new, Bayesian, interpretation of probabilities in physics that unifies their current use in classical…
Studies aimed at understanding the global properties of the hyperpolarizabilities have focused on identifying universal properties when the hyperpolarizabilities are at the fundamental limit. These studies have taken two complimentary…
This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…
Arguments from scale physics, augmented by numerical and analytical investigations, are used to consider the probability and the detectability of superoscillations in generic functions. The detectability is defined as the fraction of the…
The standard paradigm for confirmatory clinical trials is to compare experimental treatments with a control, for example the standard of care or a placebo. However, it is not always the case that a suitable control exists. Efficient…
Reconciliation of frequentist and Bayesian approaches to elementary treatment of data in nuclear and particle physics is attempted. Unique procedure to express the significance of a small count in presence of background is henceforth…
A method is presented for estimating the background at a given location on a sky map by interpolating the estimated background from a set of concentric annuli which surround this location. If the background is nonuniform but smoothly…
Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…
Background properties in experimental particle physics are typically estimated using control samples corresponding to large numbers of events. This can provide precise knowledge of average background distributions, but typically does not…
Extracting maximal information from experimental data requires access to the likelihood function, which however is never directly available for complex experiments like those performed at high energy colliders. Theoretical predictions are…
We study a diagnostic strategy which is based on the anticipation of the diagnostic process by simulation of the dynamical process starting from the initial findings. We show that such a strategy could result in more accurate diagnoses…
We demonstrate a simple method for testing the significance of peaks in the periodogram of red noise data. The procedure was designed to test for spurious periodicities in X-ray light curves of active galaxies, but can be used quite…
Microvariations probe the physics and internal structure of quasars. Unpredictability and small flux variations make this phenomenon elusive and difficult to detect. Variance based probes such as the C and F tests, or a combination of both,…