Related papers: On Observability of Signal over Background
The experimental issue of the search for new particles of unknown mass poses the challenge of exploring a wide interval to look for the usual signatures represented by excess of events above the background. A side effect of such a broad…
A group of approaches for calculating forensic likelihood ratios first calculates scores which quantify the degree of difference or the degree of similarity between pairs of samples, then converts those scores to likelihood ratios. In order…
The statistical methods used by the ATLAS Collaboration for setting upper limits or establishing a discovery are reviewed, as they are fundamental ingredients in the search for new phenomena. The analyses published so far adopted different…
A method is described, which computes from an observed sample of events upper limits for production rates of particles, or, in case of appearance of a signal, the probability for an upwards fluctuation of the background. For any candidate,…
Possible parameter values in a random sampling model are shown by definition to have uniform base-rate prior probabilities. This allows a frequentist posterior probability distribution to be calculated for such possible parameter values…
The technique of degree of randomness is used to model the correlations in sequences containing various subsignals and noise. Kolmogorov stochasticity parameter enables to quantify the randomness in number sequences and hence appears as an…
This paper studies a method of a two dimensional background calculation for an analysis of events with two particles of the same type registered in experiments in high-energy physics. The standard two-dimensional integration is replaced by…
By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior…
We present a general probabilistic formalism for cross-identifying astronomical point sources in multiple observations. Our Bayesian approach, symmetric in all observations, is the foundation of a unified framework for object matching,…
I propose a general quantum hypothesis testing theory that enables one to test hypotheses about any aspect of a physical system, including its dynamics, based on a series of observations. For example, the hypotheses can be about the…
In this note I go through the `proof' of frequentistic confidence intervals and show what it logically implies concerning the value of a physical quantity given an experimental observation (nothing).
In solar physics, especially in exploratory stages of research, it is often necessary to compare the power spectra of two or more time series. One may, for instance, wish to estimate what the power spectrum of the combined data sets might…
A procedure to include the uncertainty on the background estimate for upper limit calculations using Poissonian sampling is presented for the case where a Gaussian assumption on the uncertainty can be made. Under that hypothesis an analytic…
Present quantum Monte Carlo codes use statistical techniques adapted to find the amplitude of a quantum system or the associated eigenvalues. Thus, they do not use a true physical random source. It is demonstrated that, in fact, quantum…
Note: Published now as a chapter in "Handbook of the History and Philosophy of Mathematical Practice" (Springer Nature, editor B. Sriraman, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19071-2_105-1). The application of mathematical probability theory…
Analogues of the frequentist chi-square and F tests are proposed for testing goodness-of-fit and consistency for Bayesian models. Simple examples exhibit these tests' detection of inconsistency between consecutive experiments with identical…
Statistical hypothesis testing serves as statistical evidence for scientific innovation. However, if the reported results are intentionally biased, hypothesis testing no longer controls the rate of false discovery. In particular, we study…
In signal detection problems, one is usually faced with the task of searching a parameter space for peaks in the likelihood function which indicate the presence of a signal. Random searches have proven to be very efficient as well as easy…
The use of the loudest observed event to generate statistical statements about rate and strength has become standard in searches for gravitational waves from compact binaries and pulsars. The Bayesian formulation of the method is…
Background treatment is crucial to extract physics from precision experiments. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to assign each event a signal probability. This could then be used to weight the event's contribution to the…