Related papers: The El Nino Stochastic Oscillator
Arnold's standard circle maps are widely used to study the quasi-periodic route to chaos and other phenomena associated with nonlinear dynamics in the presence of two rationally unrelated periodicities. In particular, the El Nino-Southern…
We study the three-timescale dynamics of a model that describes the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which was proposed in [A. Roberts, J. Guckenheimer, E. Widiasih, A. Timmermann, and C. K. Jones, Mixed-mode oscillations…
We investigate a low-dimensional slow-fast model to understand the dynamical origin of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation. A close inspection of the system dynamics using several bifurcation plots reveals that a sudden large expansion of the…
The dynamics of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are succinctly captured by the Recharge Oscillator (RO) framework. However, to simulate ENSO realistically, careful choices must be made regarding the RO's key parameters. In…
El Ni\~no episodes are part of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest driver of interannual climate variability, and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Previously we…
We study a noisy oscillator with pulse delayed feedback, theoretically and in an electronic experimental implementation. Without noise, this system has multiple stable periodic regimes. We consider two types of noise: i) phase noise acting…
Models of global climate phenomena of low to intermediate complexity are very useful for providing an understanding at a conceptual level. An important aspect of such models is the presence of a number of feedback loops that feature…
We show that the monthly recorded history (1878-2013) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a descriptor of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, can be well described as a dynamic system that supports an average…
The El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently, we have developed two approaches…
The El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) behavior can be effectively modeled as a response to a 2nd-order Mathieu/Hill differential equation with periodic coefficients describing sloshing of a volume of water. The forcing of the equation…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…
The Earth's climate system is a classical example of a multiscale, multiphysics dynamical system with an extremely large number of active degrees of freedom, exhibiting variability on scales ranging from micrometers and seconds in cloud…
We propose here a stochastic binary element whose transition rate depends on its state at a fixed interval in the past. With this delayed stochastic transition this is one of the simplest dynamical models under the influence of ``noise''…
Satellite and ground-based observations are used to explore the composite oceanic - atmospheric link known as the El Ni\~no/La Ni\~na Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is closely associated with extreme weather events (e.g. heat…
Oceanic atmospheric oscillations and climate variability are tightly linked and both exhibit broad band spectral content that ranges, with roughly equal strength, from annual to centennial periodicity. The explanation for variability based…
Many physical and biological systems exhibit intrinsic cyclic dynamics that are altered by random external perturbations. We examine continuous-time autonomous dynamical systems exhibiting a stable limit cycle, perturbed by additive…
Studying the response of a climate system to perturbations has practical significance. Standard methods in computing the trajectory-wise deviation caused by perturbations may suffer from the chaotic nature that makes the model error…
This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Ni\~no events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…