Related papers: Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basi…
A theoretical formulation for the early stage (Tropical Storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. These solutions are not only consistent with observations but also offer some new insights into hurricane properties. This is the…
There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict…
Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their…
We propose a new statistical protocol for the estimation of precipitation using lightning data. We first identify rainy events using a scan statistics, then we estimate Rainfall Lighting Ratio (RLR) to convert lightning number into rain…
Numerical simulation models associated with hydraulic engineering take a wide array of data into account to produce predictions: rainfall contribution to the drainage basin (characterized by soil nature, infiltration capacity and moisture),…
Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of…
Rainfall is a climatic factor that affects many human activities like agriculture, construction, and forestry. Rainfall is dependent on various meteorological features and its prediction is a very complex task due to the dynamic climatic…
A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves as an estimate for track uncertainty. We train the network…
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall…
Building on recent research for prediction of hurricane trajectories using recurrent neural networks (RNNs), we have developed improved methods and generalized the approach to predict Bayesian intervals in addition to simple point…
Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…
Rainfall is an important component of the climate system and its statistical properties are vital for prediction purposes. In this study, we have developed a statistical method for constructing the distribution of annual precipitation. The…
Based on realistic estimates of geophysical conditions it is demonstrated that by practical means; (1) the intensity of a hurricane can be diminished before making landfall; (2) and other circumstances, a potential hurricane might be…
Rainfall prediction is one of the challenging and uncertain tasks which has a significant impact on human society. Timely and accurate predictions can help to proactively reduce human and financial loss. This study presents a set of…
Wind is one of the important reasonable resources. However, wind turbine towers are sure to be threatened by hurricanes. In this paper, method to estimate the number of wind turbine towers that would be buckled by hurricanes is discussed.…
Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…
This, fourth paper of the series (see previous papers in Refs.[1-3]) derives approximate equations for future numerical studies of initial evolution of hurricanes, develops new analytical models of hurricane genesis and maturing, and…
The prediction of the intensity, location and time of the landfall of a tropical cyclone well advance in time and with high accuracy can reduce human and material loss immensely. In this article, we develop a Long Short-Term memory based…
We perform an objective change-point analysis on 106 years of historical hurricane number data. The algorithm we use looks at all possible combinations of change-points and compares them in terms of the variances of the differences between…
Fast and accurate prediction of hurricane evolution from genesis onwards is needed to reduce loss of life and enhance community resilience. In this work, a novel model development methodology for predicting storm trajectory is proposed…