Related papers: Boltzmann Distribution and Temperature of Stock Ma…
This paper introduces a novel approach to financial crisis prediction by establishing a thermodynamic-like framework derived from the fluctuation theorem of statistical physics. We define market temperature through the probability ratio of…
We show that recent stock market fluctuations are characterized by the cumulative distributions whose tails on short, minute time scales exhibit power scaling with the scaling index alpha > 3 and this index tends to increase quickly with…
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using…
We apply the concepts of multifractal physics to financial time series in order to characterize the onset of crash for the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index x(t). It is found that within the framework of multifractality, the "analogous"…
Gibbs and Boltzmann definitions of temperature agree only in the macroscopic limit. The ambiguity in identifying the equilibrium temperature of a finite sized `small' system exchanging energy with a bath is usually understood as a…
Several problems arising in Economics and Finance are analyzed using concepts and quantitative methods from Physics. Here is the abridged abstact: Chapter 1: By analogy with energy, the equilibrium probability distribution of money must…
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…
We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential,…
We study the statistical properties of volatility---a measure of how much the market is likely to fluctuate. We estimate the volatility by the local average of the absolute price changes. We analyze (a) the S&P 500 stock index for the…
We propose that the minimal requirements for a model of stock market price fluctuations should comprise time asymmetry, robustness with respect to connectivity between agents, ``bounded rationality'' and a probabilistic description. We also…
We study in this paper the time evolution of stock markets using a statistical physics approach. Each agent is represented by a spin having a number of discrete states $q$ or continuous states, describing the tendency of the agent for…
Based on the tick-by-tick stock prices from the German and American stock markets, we study the statistical properties of the distribution of the individual stocks and the index returns in highly collective and noisy intervals of trading,…
A simple quantum model explains the Levy-unstable distributions for individual stock returns observed by ref.[1]. The probability density function of the returns is written as the squared modulus of an amplitude. For short time intervals…
The daily volume of transaction on the New York Stock Exchange and its day-to-day fluctuations are analysed with respect to power-law tails as well long-term trends. We also model the transition to a Gaussian distribution for longer time…
A spin model relating physical to financial variables is presented. This work is the first to introduce the concept of negative absolute temperature into stock market dynamics by establishing a rigorous formal analogy between physical and…
Based on the tick-by-tick price changes of the companies from the U.S. and from the German stock markets over the period 1998-99 we reanalyse several characteristics established by the Boston Group for the U.S. market in the period 1994-95,…
The Boltzmann distribution describes a single parameter (temperature) family of probability distributions over a state space; at any given temperature, the ratio of probabilities of two states depends on their difference in energy. The same…
In financial markets, greater volatility is usually considered synonym of greater risk and instability. However, large market downturns and upturns are often preceded by long periods where price returns exhibit only small fluctuations. To…
A statistical physics model for the time evolutions of stock portfolios is proposed. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins. The Hamiltonian of the system is introduced and is…
We study how the phenomenon of contagion can take place in the network of the world's stock exchanges due to the behavioral trait "blindeness to small changes". On large scale individual, the delay in the collective response may…