Related papers: Non-Parametric Extraction of Implied Asset Price D…
This research presents a comprehensive framework for transitioning financial diffusion models from the risk-neutral (RN) measure to the real-world (RW) measure, leveraging results from probability theory, specifically Girsanov's theorem.…
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT) are the current gold standards to empirically measure the effect of a new drug. However, they may be of limited size and resorting to complementary non-randomized data, referred to as observational, is…
We investigate the predictability of several range-based stock volatility estimators, and compare them to the standard close-to-close estimator which is most commonly acknowledged as the volatility. The patterns of volatility changes are…
We present a deep learning framework for pricing options based on market-implied volatility surfaces. Using end-of-day S\&P 500 index options quotes from 2018-2023, we construct arbitrage-free volatility surfaces and generate training data…
Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) have emerged as powerful generative models for complex distributions, yet their use in arbitrage-free derivative pricing remains largely unexplored. Financial asset prices are naturally…
Multiscale stochastic volatility models have been developed as an efficient way to capture the principle effects on derivative pricing and portfolio optimization of randomly varying volatility. The recent book Fouque, Papanicolaou, Sircar…
This article combines various methods of analysis to draw a comprehensive picture of penalty approximations to the value, hedge ratio, and optimal exercise strategy of American options. While convergence of the penalised solution for…
Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) has emerged as a compelling framework for scene representation and 3D recovery. To improve its performance on real-world data, depth regularizations have proven to be the most effective ones. However, depth…
Randomized Smoothing (RS) is a prominent technique for certifying the robustness of neural networks against adversarial perturbations. With RS, achieving high accuracy at small radii requires a small noise variance, while achieving high…
Time series modeling has entered an era of unprecedented growth in the size and complexity of data which require new modeling approaches. While many new general purpose machine learning approaches have emerged, they remain poorly understand…
This paper explores option portfolio optimization when the underlying returns are skew-elliptical t-distributed. We use the variance and value at risk (VaR) to measure portfolio risk. The novelty of our work is the departure from the…
This paper proposes the option-implied Fourier-cosine method, iCOS, for non-parametric estimation of risk-neutral densities, option prices, and option sensitivities. The iCOS method leverages the Fourier-based COS technique, proposed by…
In financial engineering, prices of financial products are computed approximately many times each trading day with (slightly) different parameters in each calculation. In many financial models such prices can be approximated by means of…
This paper develops a robust dynamic mode decomposition (RDMD) method endowed with statistical and numerical robustness. Statistical robustness ensures estimation efficiency at the Gaussian and non-Gaussian probability distributions,…
Mathematical modelling is ubiquitous in the financial industry and drives key decision processes. Any given model provides only a crude approximation to reality and the risk of using an inadequate model is hard to detect and quantify. By…
The Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) calculation is computationally intensive, relying on the market-consistent estimation of own funds. While Solvency II prioritizes the direct valuation method, it theoretically yields the same value as…
This study investigates the short-term asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility surface (IVS), with a particular focus on the at-the-money (ATM) skew and curvature, which are key determinants of the IVS shape and whose are widely…
A popular approach to nonparametric option pricing is the Minimum Cross Entropy (MCE) method based on minimization of the relative Kullback-Leibler entropy of the price density distribution and a given reference density, with observable…
We investigate the statistical evidence for the use of `rough' fractional processes with Hurst exponent $H< 0.5$ for the modeling of volatility of financial assets, using a model-free approach. We introduce a non-parametric method for…
To adopt neural networks in safety critical domains, knowing whether we can trust their predictions is crucial. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide uncertainty estimates by averaging predictions with respect to the posterior weight…