Related papers: Non-Parametric Extraction of Implied Asset Price D…

In this article, we provide representations of European and American exchange option prices under stochastic volatility jump-diffusion (SVJD) dynamics following models by Merton (1976), Heston (1993), and Bates (1996). A Radon-Nikodym…

We describe the pricing and hedging of financial options without the use of probability using rough paths. By encoding the volatility of assets in an enhancement of the price trajectory, we give a pathwise presentation of the replication of…

We consider the pricing of derivatives written on the discretely sampled realized variance of an underlying security. In the literature, the realized variance is usually approximated by its continuous-time limit, the quadratic variation of…

We present a neural network based calibration method that performs the calibration task within a few milliseconds for the full implied volatility surface. The framework is consistently applicable throughout a range of volatility models…

We propose a new approach, termed Realized Risk Measures (RRM), to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) using high-frequency financial data. It extends the Realized Quantile (RQ) approach proposed by Dimitriadis and…

In this study, we constructed daily high-frequency sentiment data and used the VAR method to attempt to predict the next day's implied volatility surface. We utilized 630,000 text data entries from the East Money Stock Forum from 2014 to…

We derive quantitative error bounds for deep neural networks (DNNs) approximating option prices on a $d$-dimensional risky asset as functions of the underlying model parameters, payoff parameters and initial conditions. We cover a general…

Machine learning in asset pricing typically predicts expected returns as point estimates, ignoring uncertainty. We develop new methods to construct forecast confidence intervals for expected returns obtained from neural networks. We show…

Neural networks with randomly generated hidden weights (RaNNs) have been extensively studied, both as a standalone learning method and as an initialization for fully trainable deep learning methods. In this work, we study RaNN expressivity…

Generating realistic synthetic option prices requires implied volatility as an input, yet implied volatility is itself derived from observed option prices, creating a circular dependency that limits synthetic data for machine-learning and…

We provide a simple explicit estimator for discretely observed Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models, prove rigorously consistency and asymptotic normality based on the single assumption that all moments of the stationary distribution of…

We study the problem of efficiently computing the derivative of the fixed-point of a parametric nondifferentiable contraction map. This problem has wide applications in machine learning, including hyperparameter optimization, meta-learning…

We propose a nonparametric estimator of the empirical distribution function (EDF) of the latent spot variance of the log-price of a financial asset. We show that over a fixed time span our realized EDF (or REDF) -- inferred from noisy…

As operators acting on the undetermined final settlement of a derivative security, expectation is linear but price is non-linear. When the market of underlying securities is incomplete, non-linearity emerges from the bid-offer around the…

We present a fully nonparametric method to estimate the value function, via simulation, in the context of expected infinite-horizon discounted rewards for Markov chains. Estimating such value functions plays an important role in approximate…

Here we develop an option pricing method based on Legendre series expansion of the density function. The key insight, relying on the close relation of the characteristic function with the series coefficients, allows to recover the density…

We introduce a pricing kernel with time-varying volatility risk aversion to explain observed time variations in the shape of the pricing kernel. When combined with the Heston-Nandi GARCH model, this framework yields a tractable option…

This paper introduces a framework for capturing stochasticity of choice probabilities in neural networks, derived from and fully consistent with the Random Utility Maximization (RUM) theory, referred to as RUM-NN. Neural network models show…

We derive a closed-form expression capturing the degree of Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) of investors for non-"fair" lotteries. We argue that our formula is superior to earlier methods that have been proposed, as it is a function of only…

In this paper we formulate a regression problem to predict realized volatility by using option price data and enhance VIX-styled volatility indices' predictability and liquidity. We test algorithms including regularized regression and…