Related papers: Kelly Criterion revisited: optimal bets
Peters (2011a) defined an optimal leverage which maximizes the time-average growth rate of an investment held at constant leverage. It was hypothesized that this optimal leverage is attracted to 1, such that, e.g., leveraging an investment…
We report a new result on lotteries --- that a well-funded syndicate has a purely mechanical strategy to achieve expected returns of 10\% to 25\% in an equiprobable lottery with no take and no carryover pool. We prove that an optimal…
Cricket betting is a multi-billion dollar market. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for models that can predict the outcomes of games and beat the odds provided by bookers. The aim of this study was to investigate to what degree it is…
We study the risk criterion for investments based on the drawdown from the maximal value of the capital in the past. Depending on investor's risk attitude, thus his risk exposure, we find that the distribution of these drawdowns follows a…
Chances of a gambler are always lower than chances of a casino in the case of an ideal, mathematically perfect roulette, if the capital of the gambler is limited and the minimum and maximum allowed bets are limited by the casino. However, a…
This article examines arbitrage investment in a mispriced asset when the mispricing follows the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and a credit-constrained investor maximizes a generalization of the Kelly criterion. The optimal differentiable and…
We introduce and study a mathematical model of an art collector. In our model, the collector is a rational agent whose actions in the art market are driven by two competing long-term objectives, namely sustainable financial health and…
It is known that repeated gambling over the outcomes of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables gives rise to alternate operational meaning of entropies in the classical case in terms of the doubling rates. We give…
Optimization methods are used to determine equilibria of investment in cryptocurrencies. The basic assumptions involve existence of a core group (the "wealthy") that fears the loss of substantial assets through government seizure.…
In this paper, we consider a discrete-time portfolio with $m \geq 2$ assets optimization problem which includes the rebalancing~frequency as an additional parameter in the maximization. The so-called Kelly Criterion is used as the…
We apply Blackwell optimality to repeated games. An equilibrium whose strategy profile is sequentially rational for all high enough discount factors simultaneously is a Blackwell (subgame-perfect, perfect public, etc.) equilibrium. The bite…
In this paper, we present betting strategy of a football game using probability theory. We know all betting houses offer slightly unfair odds towards the player. Here we discuss a simple way to figure out which betting house is offering…
We describe the probability theory behind a casino game, blackjack, and the procedure to compute the optimal strategy for a deck of arbitrary cards and player's expected win given that he follows the optimal strategy. The exact blackjack…
We establish fundamental connections between utility theories of wealth from the economic sciences and information-theoretic quantities. In particular, we introduce operational tasks based on betting where both gambler and bookmaker have…
Stock trading based on Kelly's celebrated Expected Logarithmic Growth (ELG) criterion, a well-known prescription for optimal resource allocation, has received considerable attention in the literature. Using ELG as the performance metric, we…
For independent multi-outcome events under multiplicative parlay pricing, we give a short exact proof of the optimal Kelly strategy using the implicit-cash viewpoint. The proof is entirely eventwise. One first solves each event in…
The study seeks to develop an effective strategy based on the novel framework of statistical arbitrage based on graph clustering algorithms. Amalgamation of quantitative and machine learning methods, including the Kelly criterion, and an…
We consider a two-person trading game in continuous time whereby each player chooses a constant rebalancing rule $b$ that he must adhere to over $[0,t]$. If $V_t(b)$ denotes the final wealth of the rebalancing rule $b$, then Player 1 (the…
Hypothesis testing via e-variables can be framed as a sequential betting game, where a player each round picks an e-variable. A good player's strategy results in an effective statistical test that rejects the null hypothesis as soon as…
We develop a general framework for applying the Kelly criterion to stock markets. By supplying an arbitrary probability distribution modeling the future price movement of a set of stocks, the Kelly fraction for investing each stock can be…