Related papers: Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: …
We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurricanes. In our track model we have so far employed a normal…
We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second stage we modelled the unconditional variance of fluctuations…
We describe results from the second stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. We now attempt to model the unconditional variance of fluctuations around…
An open-source, physics-based tropical cyclone downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of tropical cyclones. The model is composed of three primary components: (1) a random seeding process that determines…
The tropical cyclone formation process is one of the most complex natural phenomena which is governed by various atmospheric, oceanographic, and geographic factors that varies with time and space. Despite several years of research,…
Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…
As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of tropical cyclone genesis. The method avoids the use of…
We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the averaging length…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
A theoretical formulation for the early stage (Tropical Storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. These solutions are not only consistent with observations but also offer some new insights into hurricane properties. This is the…
This, fourth paper of the series (see previous papers in Refs.[1-3]) derives approximate equations for future numerical studies of initial evolution of hurricanes, develops new analytical models of hurricane genesis and maturing, and…
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction is crucial for mitigating the catastrophic impacts of TCs on human life and the environment. Despite decades of research on tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction, large errors known as track…
Kossin et al. (2020) successfully test (over the last four decades) the prediction of climate-change models that conditional tropical cyclone intensity (the frequency of major [category 3-5] cyclones divided by the frequency of all…
Hurricanes and, more generally, tropical cyclones (TCs) are rare, complex natural phenomena of both scientific and public interest. The importance of understanding TCs in a changing climate has increased as recent TCs have had devastating…
The generation of synthetic tropical cyclone(TC) tracks for risk assessment is a critical application of preparedness for the impacts of climate change and disaster relief, particularly in North America. Insurance companies use these…
Tropical cyclones are among the most consequential weather hazards, yet estimates of their risk are limited by the relatively short historical record. To extend these records, researchers often generate large ensembles of synthetic storms…
The paper describes results of numerical experiments on the simulation of a mesoscale quasi-tropical cyclone, a rare event for the Black Sea, with the MM5 regional atmospheric circulation model. General characteristics of the cyclone and…
Accurate tropical cyclones (TCs) tracking represents a critical challenge in the context of weather and climate science. Traditional tracking schemes mainly rely on subjective thresholds, which may introduce biases in their skills on the…
Anthropogenic influences have been linked to tropical cyclone (TC) poleward migration, TC extreme precipitation, and an increased proportion of major hurricanes [1, 2, 3, 4]. Understanding past TC trends and variability is critical for…
In this work, we suggest a system of differential equations that quantitatively models the formulation and evolution of a trend cycle through the consideration of underlying dynamics between the trend participants. Our model captures the…