Related papers: A Precursor of Market Crashes
Cross-sectional signatures of market panic were recently discussed on daily time scales in [1], extended here to a study of cross-sectional properties of stocks on intra-day time scales. We confirm specific intra-day patterns of dispersion…
We present the clustering analysis of the financial markets of S&P 500 (USA) and Nikkei 225 (JPN) markets over a period of 2006-2019 as an example of a complex system. We investigate the statistical properties of correlation matrices…
We introduce a new diffusion process Xt to describe asset prices within an economic bubble cycle. The main feature of the process, which differs from existing models, is the drift term where a mean-reversion is taken based on an exponential…
This paper presents an exclusive classification of the largest crashes in Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), SP500 and NASDAQ in the past century. Crashes are objectively defined as the top-rank filtered drawdowns (loss from the last…
We empirically investigate fluctuations in product prices in online markets by using a tick-by-tick price data collected from a Japanese price comparison site, and find some similarities and differences between product and asset prices. The…
Since August 2000, the stock market in the USA as well as most other western markets have depreciated almost in synchrony according to complex patterns of drops and local rebounds. In \cite{SZ02QF}, we have proposed to describe this…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…
In a recent comment (Johansen A 2003 An alternative view, Quant. Finance 3: C6-C7, cond-mat/0302141), Anders Johansen has criticized our methodology and has questioned several of our results published in [Sornette D and Zhou W-X 2002 The US…
In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often…
We introduce a simple generalization of rational bubble models which removes the fundamental problem discovered by [Lux and Sornette, 1999] that the distribution of returns is a power law with exponent less than 1, in contradiction with…
We study the cascading dynamics immediately before and immediately after 219 market shocks. We define the time of a market shock T_{c} to be the time for which the market volatility V(T_{c}) has a peak that exceeds a predetermined…
We show that recent stock market fluctuations are characterized by the cumulative distributions whose tails on short, minute time scales exhibit power scaling with the scaling index alpha > 3 and this index tends to increase quickly with…
As complex networks in economics, we consider Japanese shareholding networks as they existed in 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2002, and 2003. In this study, we use as data lists of shareholders for companies listed on the stock market or on the…
The dynamics of prices in financial markets has been studied intensively both experimentally (data analysis) and theoretically (models). Nevertheless, a complete stochastic characterization of volatility is still lacking. What it is well…
Prediction of events in financial markets is every investor's dream and, usually, wishful thinking. From a more general, economic and societal viewpoint, the identification of indicators for large events is highly desirable to assess…
Since the beginning of the new millennium, stock markets went through every state from long-time troughs, trade suspensions to all-time highs. The literature on asset pricing hence assumes random processes to be underlying the movement of…
Previous analyses of a large ensemble of stock markets have demonstrated that a log-periodic power law (LPPL) behavior of the prices constitutes a qualifying signature of speculative bubbles that often land with a crash. We detect such a…
In this paper we present an analysis of power law statistics on land markets. There have been no other studies that have analyzed power law statistics on land markets up to now. We analyzed a database of the assessed value of land, which is…
The price-bubble and crash process formation is theoretically investigated in a two-asset equilibrium model. Sufficient and necessary conditions are derived for the existence of average equilibrium price dynamics of different agent-based…
We study the price dynamics of stocks traded in a financial market by considering the statistical properties both of a single time series and of an ensemble of stocks traded simultaneously. We use the $n$ stocks traded in the New York Stock…