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We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 A. Christian Silva , Victor M. Yakovenko

We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether volatility of an asset follows a standard semimartingale process, with paths of finite quadratic variation, or a rough process with paths of infinite quadratic variation. The test…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-16 Carsten H. Chong , Viktor Todorov

We study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks by a model of returns using a semi-Markov approach. More precisely we assume that the intraday returns are described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov which depends also…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-30 Guglielmo D'Amico , Filippo Petroni

Binary options trading is often marketed as a field where predictive models can generate consistent profits. However, the inherent randomness and stochastic nature of binary options make price movements highly unpredictable, posing…

The formation of price in a financial market is modelled as a chain of Ising spin with three fundamental figures of trading. We investigate the time behaviour of the model, and we compare the results with the real EURO/USD change rate. By…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-12-02 Antonella Greco , Luca Sorriso-Valvo , Vincenzo Carbone

Based on It\^o semimartingale models, several studies have proposed methods for forecasting intraday volatility using high-frequency financial data. These approaches typically rely on restrictive parametric assumptions and are often…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-31 Sung Hoon Choi , Donggyu Kim

We study the tick dynamical behavior of the yen-dollar exchange rate using the rescaled range analysis in financial market. It is found that the multifractal Hurst exponents with the short and long-run memory effects can be obtained from…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-24 Kyungsik Kim , Seong-Min Yoon , Jum-Soo Choi

A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-24 Takahiro Omi , Yoshito Hirata , Kazuyuki Aihara

Permutation approach is suggested as a method to investigate financial time series in micro scales. The method is used to see how high frequency trading in recent years has affected the micro patterns which may be seen in financial time…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-08-06 Cina Aghamohammadi , Mehran Ebrahimian , Hamed Tahmooresi

Data sets in the form of binary matrices are ubiquitous across scientific domains, and researchers are often interested in identifying and quantifying noteworthy structure. One approach is to compare the observed data to that which might be…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-30 Alex Fout , Bailey K. Fosdick , Matthew P. Hitt

The Bouncy Particle Sampler is a novel rejection-free non-reversible sampler for differentiable probability distributions over continuous variables. We generalize the algorithm to piecewise differentiable distributions and apply it to…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-06 Ari Pakman

In recent literature it is claimed that BitCoin price behaves more likely to a volatile stock asset than a currency and that changes in its price are influenced by sentiment about the BitCoin system itself; in Kristoufek [10] the author…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-09-23 Alessandra Cretarola , Gianna Figà-Talamanca , Marco Patacca

Many countries have adopted negative interest rate policies with tiering remuneration, which allows for exemption from negative rates. This practice has led to higher interbank trading volumes, with market rates ranging between zero and the…

General Economics · Economics 2026-01-21 Toshifumi Nakamura

In a universe with a single currency, there would be no foreign exchange market, no foreign exchange rates, and no foreign exchange. Over the past twenty-five years, the way the market has performed those tasks has changed enormously. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Ajith Abraham

In this paper we apply a new approach of the string theory to the real financial market. It is direct extension and application of the work [1] into prediction of prices. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2014-03-05 Richard Pincak , Marian Repasan

We investigate intra-day foreign exchange (FX) time series using the inverse statistic analysis developed in [1,2]. Specifically, we study the time-averaged distributions of waiting times needed to obtain a certain increase (decrease)…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2010-05-05 M. H. Jensen , A. Johansen , F. Petroni , I. Simonsen

Recent studies have revealed a number of striking dependence patterns in high frequency stock price dynamics characterizing probabilistic interrelation between two consequent price increments x (push) and y (response) as described by the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-13 Andrei Leonidov , Vladimir Trainin , Alexander Zatsev , Sergey Zaitsev

We study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks by a model of returns using a semi-Markov approach. More precisely we assume that the intraday return are described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov process and the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-08-24 Guglielmo D'Amico , Filippo Petroni

In financial markets, not only prices and returns can be considered as random variables, but also the waiting time between two transactions varies randomly. In the following, we analyse the statistical properties of General Electric stock…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 M. Raberto , E. Scalas , F. Mainardi

In this paper, we derive and analyze a continuous of a binary option market with exogenous information. The resulting non-linear system has a discontinuous right hand side, which can be analyzed using zero-dimensional Filippov surfaces.…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-30 Hannah Gampe , Christopher Griffin