Related papers: Reactions to extreme events: moving threshold mode…

Survival models capture the relationship between an accumulating hazard and the occurrence of a singular event stimulated by that accumulation. When the model for the hazard is sufficiently flexible survival models can accommodate a wide…

The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…

Machine learning models play a vital role in the prediction task in several fields of study. In this work, we utilize the ability of machine learning algorithms to predict the occurrence of extreme events in a nonlinear mechanical system.…

We propose a generalized extreme shock model with a possibly increasing failure threshold. While standard models assume that the crucial threshold for the system may only decrease over time, because of weakening shocks and obsolescence, we…

When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…

In some settings involving recurrent events, the occurrence of one event may produce a temporary increase in the event intensity; we refer to this phenomenon as a transient carryover effect. This paper provides models and tests for…

This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets…

Despite recent advances in uncovering the quantitative features of stationary human activity patterns, many applications, from pandemic prediction to emergency response, require an understanding of how these patterns change when the…

Extreme events gain the attention of researchers due to their utmost importance in various contexts ranging from finance to climatology. This brings such recurrent events to the limelight of attention in interdisciplinary research. A…

Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…

Complex event processing (CEP) is widely employed to detect occurrences of predefined combinations (patterns) of events in massive data streams. As new events are accepted, they are matched using some type of evaluation structure, commonly…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…

It is part of our daily social-media experience that seemingly ordinary items (videos, news, publications, etc.) unexpectedly gain an enormous amount of attention. Here we investigate how unexpected these events are. We propose a method…

This article analyzes the problem of estimating the time until an event occurs, also known as survival modeling. We observe through substantial experiments on large real-world datasets and use-cases that populations are largely…

In this paper, we discuss the emergence of extreme events in a parametrically driven non-polynomial mechanical system with a velocity-dependent potential. We confirm the occurrence of extreme events from the probability distribution…

Extreme events are unusual and rare large-amplitude fluctuations that occur can unexpectedly in nonlinear dynamical systems. Events above the extreme event threshold of the probability distribution of a nonlinear process characterize…

We study the extreme events taking place on complex networks. The transport on networks is modelled using random walks and we compute the probability for the occurance and recurrence of extreme events on the network. We show that the nodes…

The motion of pedestrian crowds (e.g. for simulation of an evacuation situation) can be modeled as a multi-body system of self driven particles with repulsive interaction. We use a few simple situations to determine the simplest allowed…

Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…