Related papers: Reactions to extreme events: moving threshold mode…

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and…

Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality…

Quantifying and predicting rare and extreme events persists as a crucial yet challenging task in understanding complex dynamical systems. Many practical challenges arise from the infrequency and severity of these events, including the…

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…

Asymptotic properties, both consistency and weak convergence, of estimators arising in a general class of dynamic recurrent event models are presented. The class of models take into account the impact of interventions after each event…

Congestion and extreme events in transportation networks are emergent phenomena with significant socio-economic implications. In this work, we study congestion and extreme event properties on real urban street (planar) networks drawn from…

Large language model-powered multi-agent systems have emerged as powerful tools for simulating complex human-like systems. The interactions within these systems often lead to extreme events whose origins remain obscured by the black box of…

There is a commonality among contagious diseases, tweets, urban crimes, nuclear reactions, and neuronal firings that past events facilitate the future occurrence of events. The spread of events has been extensively studied such that the…

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…

During contagion phenomena, individuals perceiving a risk of infection commonly adapt their behavior and reduce their exposure. The effects of such adaptive mechanisms have been studied for processes in which pairwise interactions drive…

Normal anxiety is considered an adaptive response to the possible presence of danger, but is susceptible to dysregulation. Anxiety disorders are prevalent at high frequency in contemporary human societies, yet impose substantial disability…

Extreme geophysical events are of crucial relevance to our daily life: they threaten human lives and cause property damage. To assess the risk and reduce losses, we need to model and probabilistically predict these events. Parametrizations…

To understand the emergence of Ultrafast Extreme Events (UEEs), the influence of algorithmic trading or high-frequency traders is of major interest as they make it extremely difficult to intervene and to stabilize financial markets. In an…

In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…

Thermally activated escape over a potential barrier in the presence of periodic driving is considered. By means of novel time-dependent path-integral methods we derive asymptotically exact weak-noise expressions for both the instantaneous…

Regular variation provides a convenient theoretical framework to study large events. In the multivariate setting, the dependence structure of the positive extremes is characterized by a measure - the spectral measure - defined on the…

Many complex systems exhibit extreme events far more often than expected for a normal distribution. This work examines how self-similar bursts of activity across several orders of magnitude can emerge from first principles in systems that…

Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity…